The company foresees better market conditions in H2/20 and 2021 and our findings lead us to concur with this view. Potash prices should remain resilient following the settlement of the China and India contracts. Meanwhile, phosphate and nitrate prices have rebounded from lows seen last quarter. Case in point, the supply-demand backdrop has improved markedly, … Read more
Investors’ disdain for energy stocks remains unabated with the sector oversold, undervalued and undercrowded as evidenced by the NA energy sector weight lingering at all-time lows at ~3%. Industry headwinds are well understood, but sentiment that the sector is a value trap is so ingrained in the minds of investors that the only marginal buyers … Read more
Monitoring the battle between reflation and disinflation forces is paramount when it comes to choosing between cyclical or defensive investment vehicles. One ratio we use to capture this dynamic is the gold-to-bond ratio (G/B). When the latter is rising, reflation forces are winning and commodities tend to outperform bonds. The opposite is true. Despite nearly … Read more